Causal Interference (Part I): Synthetic Control Method in California Proposition 99

Sophy Ramírez  | 03 de octubre de 2018  | Vistas: 8

The professor of political economy, Kevin Grier talks about the synthetic control method in case studies. He explains why is more useful, and the kind of results it can give to the data that is taken in a treatment study.

He begins exposing the difference between correlation and causation and why don’t knowing this difference has been a problem in public policy and politics, how statistics can help people realize this, but more knowledge is needed because both studies are different in the field of investigation and the results.

So there are a lot of facts observable or not observable that may affect your selection into treatment and also affect the outcome of the treatment”

Grier continues the forum inferring in regression method, saying that people are commonly driven by fitting the counting of action causing extrapolation.

I teach regression it’s good and bad; it’s good and it’s simple, straightforward, you know what means, it always gives you an answer. But it’s bad because it covers a lot of stuff that is important”.

The professor explains the qualitative and quantitative case studies to introduce synthetic control, and the type of studies it can be used. He focuses on a research on the Mariel Boatlift case in order to explain what kind of data you could obtain using a difference and different kind of investigation. He mentions its advantages and disadvantages, and how you can improve your data using the synthetic control method in these two types of investigation.

He points out the California Proposition in 99, to explain more detailed the benefits of synthetic control and what this system could have been used.

Grier concludes by saying that we need to be looking forward to getting rid of assumptions that aren’t real and make sure that the data that we obtain in the treatment is a signal and not false data.

Watch the second part of the seminar: 


Conferencista

Economist and professor of political economy