• 00:01    |    
    Opening credits
  • 00:19    |    
    Introduction: Factors of economic development
    • Knowledge information
    • Gambling
    • Recollection of information
    • Stock market: Information gambling markets
      • Importance of gambling in stock markets
      • Commodity features markets
  • 09:00    |    
    Prediction and Decision Markets
    • Speculation markets
      • Price predictions
      • Definition of speculative markets
      • Advantages of speculative markets
    • Examples: InTrade.com
    • Better performance of betting markets over alternatives
      • Forecast of movie sales
      • Horse races
      • Economic derivatives market
      • NFL predictions
      • Presidential elections
      • Policy analysis market (PAM)
        • Public opinion about PAM
        • PAM concerns
    • Purpose of betting markets: information and predictions
    • Internal applications in companies
  • 21:47    |    
    Prediction markets institutions
    • Comparison of forecast accuracy
    • Speculative markets: tradeoff between experts and amateurs
    • Advantages over official predictions agencies
    • Laboratory experiment
      • Description of the experiment
      • Thin markets problem
      • Outperforming alternative prediction agencies
    • Applications
      • Single player decision markets
      • US Presidential prices
      • Corporate applications
      • Policy applications
    • Decision market requirements
    • Personal idea about organization of large corporations
      • Central planners and executives
      • Advisors
  • 41:22    |    
    Questions and answers period
    • How can you control betting markets to avoid the formation of special interest groups with biased decisions?
    • How do you determine the relationship between the probabilities and the betting price of an option?
      • Reluctance of middle management to implement betting market applications
      • Low enthusiasm of general public about prediction markets
    • What is the difference between a sport gamble ( n quiniela) and a betting market?
    • Can predictions market be used to determine the success of a new product?
    • Do betting markets need to be public? What is the importance of secrecy in these institutions?
    • What are the internal costs of implementing betting markets in a corporation?
    • Are betting markets more difficult to manipulate than prediction agencies?
  • 01:06:11    |    
    Final words
  • 01:07:24    |    
    Final credits



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Prediction Markets

25 de octubre de 2007   | Vistas: 1213 |  

The difference between a market and a central planner is that a market deals efficiently with the problems of uncertain, inexact, and incomplete information. Information is a scarce and disperse resource, and economic development occurs when this resource is used optimally. Speculative markets base their profits on the accurate prediction of price patterns and and have outperformed other prediction alternatives in stock prices, weather, sports, presidential elections, and public policies.  Many companies have found applications in this markets by outsourcing policy decision making.




Robin Hanson is an associate professor at George Mason University and Research Associate in Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford…

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Universidad Francisco Marroquín