How to Face the International Terrorism? Economic and Political Impact

Transcript

00:01 |

Initial credits
00:30 |

Personal presentation
00:51 |

Introduction
- How much defense spending?
  - Opinion of Hitch and McKean
  - Opinion of President George Bush
- Comparative military budgets across countries
  - Money allocated to defense
  - Share of GDP allocated to defense
06:19 |

US Department of Homeland Security
06:53 |

Research objectives
- Determine the impact of terrorism on national economies
- Applications: managing financial portfolios
07:59 |

Preview
08:18 |

Overview of global terrorism
Definition of terrorism
09:41 |

Overview of global terrorist acts (1968-2002)
- What are the patterns over the past 35 years?
- Time series pattern: global incidents
- Global casualties
- Casualties per incident
12:54 |

Regional patterns: (1968-2002)
- Share of terrorist incidents
- Casualties from terrorism
14:35 |

Summary
- What are the patterns over the past 35 years?
- What are the determinants of terrorism?
16:45 |

Impact of terrorism on national economies
- Evidence used for the analysis
- Impact on four variables
- Specification of the regression model
- Variables used to measure terrorist activity
19:46 |

Regression results
- Incidents per 100K population
- Casualties per 100K population
20:53 |

Plot of regression results
- Effect of incidents in GDP
- Effect of incidents in GDP
22:09 |

Effect of unanticipated incidents
22:42 |

Application of the regression results
- GDP gains from deterring one incident
- GDP gains for US
- GDP loss from increased casualties
26:51 |

Analysis of historical data to estimate the impact
28:23 |

Caveat: omission of psychological effects on the estimates
29:33 |

Use of this analysis
30:01 |

Question and answer period
- Do you think that the American economy is feed by the war industry?
- Does the best strategy to have a GDP gain consists of preventing incidents rather than preventing casualties?
- How much is the Defense Department investing in technology and innovation?
  - Opinion of Marc Crain
  - Opinion of Nicole Crain
- What would be the effect of Defense Expenditure in the main variables?
  - Opinion of Nicole Crain
  - Opinion of Marc Crain
- Does the Patriot Act affects also individual freedom?
47:44 |

Final credits

How to Face the International Terrorism? Economic and Political Impact

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