• 00:01    |    
    Initial credits
  • 00:20    |    
  • 01:02    |    
    Tax rate effects
    • Contemporaneous effects
    • Endogeneity problem
    • Contemporaneous change in the marginal rate
    • Christina and David Romer
    • Intended effect on tax revenues
    • Romer tax variable
    • Different results
    • Negative effect
    • Government purchases
      • Fluctuations in defense expenditure
        • War years
        • Korean War
      • Multiplier results
      • Non-defense government purchases
      • Consumer spending
      • Exogenous government purchases
      • Does international trade decrease in war time?
      • George Bush's tax cut in 2003
      • Higher tax rates
      • What is your opinion on price regulation?
      • Does the quality of government spending have an effect on the multiplier?
  • 31:30    |    
    Stock-market crashes and depressions
    • Depression defined
    • Background
    • Long-term national accounts aggregates
    • Long-term macro data
    • Reliable data
    • Macroeconomic depressions
    • World War II
    • Stock-market crashes
    • Countries with long-term GDP and C data
    • GDP and C data
    • United States
    • C and GDP disasters
    • Current financial crisis
    • Distribution of disaster sizes
    • Illustration of methodology for the United States
    • Great influenza epidemic
    • Macroeconomic performance
      • Stock-market crashes related to depressions
      • Poor macroeconomic performance
    • Matched cases
    • Examples
    • Depressions only
    • Crashes only
    • 1987 stock-market crash
    • Summary statistics
    • Strategies
  • 01:01:22.5    |    
    Conditional probability of a depression, by size
  • 10 percent depression
  • 01:05:03    |    
    Conditional probability of a crash, by size
  • 01:06:25    |    
    Calibration results
  • 01:06:36.80000000000018    |    
    • Equity premium puzzle
    • Future research
  • 01:10:50.5    |    
    Final words
  • 01:11:10    |    
    Final credits

Disasters and Rare Macroeconomic Events

New Media  | 17 de julio de 2009  | Vistas: 39

About this video

Robert J. Barro begins this presentation by explaining the impact that the taxes imposed by governments at different times in history have had on the country's economy, specifically on its GDP and consumer spending. Using the U.S. as an example, he explains how governments change tax rates depending on the situation the country is in and its current needs. He distinguishes between two types of government expenditures: defense and non-defense spending. Barro also discusses how these expenditures influence the economy differently and the multiplier effect identified by John Maynard Keynes decades ago. He then focuses on macroeconomic disasters such as depressions and stock-market crashes. After defining these two concepts, he uses long-term OECD economic data to illustrate how different countries were affected by these disasters. Finally, Barro demonstrates how depressions and stock-market crashes are related and how they affect short- and long-term outcomes.


Disasters and Rare Macroeconomic Events
Robert J. Barro, PhD

Casa Popenoe, Antigua Guatemala
Universidad Francisco Marroquín
Guatemala, July 17, 2009

A New Media - UFM production. Guatemala, August 2009.
Camera: Manuel Alvarez, Mynor de León; digital editing: Luis Barrueto; index and synopsis: Sergio Bustamante; content reviser: Jennifer Keller; publication: Mario Pivaral/Carlos Petz



Nuestra misión es la enseñanza y difusión de los principios éticos, jurídicos y económicos de una sociedad de personas libres y responsables.

Universidad Francisco Marroquín