• 00:01    |    
    Opening credits
  • 00:20    |    
    Introduction
  • 01:03    |    
    Coordination: Someone in charge
    • Having a good coordination
      • Buying good people
      • Giving assistance
    • Coordinator's strategic work
    • Time and attention of the coordinator
    • Essential tasks of the coordinator
      • Judgements and reviews
      • Making the decision
      • Delegation of the coordinator's essential tasks
  • 06:42    |    
    Markets: Trading stuff for money
    • Prices going up and down
    • Speculators
      • Difficulty to predict prices
      • Today's prices as a forecast tool
      • Taking advantage of today's price
      • Side effects of markets
      • Current event prices and percentages
  • 12:09    |    
    Comparing forecasts
    • Efficiency of the prediction market
    • Forecasting used as a standard
    • Betting markets
    • Official forecasters and real data
    • Presidential election predictions
  • 16:43    |    
    Increasing interest in using prediction markets
    • The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki
    • Sales and revenue forecast
    • Companies using prediction markets
  • 19:01    |    
    Incentives to the traders
    • Topics to treat
    • Morale markets
    • Strong incentives and fun topics
    • Weak incentives and high-value answers
    • Decision markets
  • 22:00    |    
    Cost and value space of topics
    • Value of information
    • Cost per trader
    • Separation of the topics
    • Gambling fanatics
    • Mayority of low-value topics
      • Ordinary markets
      • Prediction markets
      • High-value topics
  • 26:17    |    
    Prediction markets as a mechanism
    • Accuracy
    • Comparison of mechanisms
    • Not experts vs. self-chosen amateurs
    • Prediction market penalties for incompetence
    • Advantages of prediction markets
    • Hard to evaluate
  • 30:30    |    
    Decision markets
    • Definition
    • Example of a political decision
      • Single payer decision markets
      • Conditional vs. unconditional bets
      • Uses of markets to predict revenues
  • 33:03    |    
    Markets as advisors
    • Delegating decisions to the market
    • Decision markets' objective
    • Organization wide decisions
    • Company valuations
    • Contingency stock markets
    • Delegating key decisions to markets
  • 36:40    |    
    Today's United States president prices
  • Conditional probability
  • 38:03    |    
    Questions and comments
    • What is the right number of people to make this work?
    • Is there a way to benchmark forecasts?
    • Market creation: Automated market maker
    • How many people participate in the companies mentioned before?
    • Are predictions markets used only by large companies?
    • Ad campaign
      • The power of one person
      • Variety of usages to make decisions
    • How much do people really use forecasts to make decisions?
    • Influence of important market participants
      • Ad campaign
      • Sheep and wolves in speculative markets
      • Financial markets and incentives for trading
    • Price choices and their influence on the market
    • Who makes the final decision?
      • Decisions by date
      • Option to delay
      • Unanticipated delays
      • Decision selection bias
    • Betting payoff
    • Acting under disagreement with the market's judgement
      • Defining the so-called errors
      • Fudge account
    • Do market participants compromise their final decision?
  • 58:09    |    
    Decision market requirements
  • Measuring outcomes
  • 59:20    |    
    Concerns
  • Example: Marketing a new phone
  • 01:02:34    |    
    Paying employees for information
    • Non-cash payments
    • Simple play money
    • Proposal: Creation of a new color of money
    • Transfer of funds
  • 01:07:10    |    
    Measuring and evaluating the importance of the topics
  • 01:08:17    |    
    Abstract concerns
    • Measuring the accuracy of predictions
      • Lack of usage of forecasting in decision making
      • Defining what to bet on
      • Replacing professionals with random amateurs
    • Insider trading rules as a limitation
    • Insider trading rules in USA
    • Prediction and decision markets as an organizational innovation
    • Decision markets and legal issues of speculation
    • Pharmaceutical industry
    • Costs of creating a market
  • 01:22:36    |    
    Final remarks
  • 01:22:53    |    
    Final credits



Share

Video:

Embed:

Decision Markets

24 de octubre de 2007   | Vistas: 1150 |  

About this video

Robin Hanson gives a lecture about decision markets and their influence over organizations.  He gives some controversial statements, specially about managers, explaining that some of their key features can be delegated to the market. Hanson attributes this to the prediction markets and the influence of speculators on the economy and analyzes the incentives and the ways to measure these concepts, regarding the accuracy of the predictions.



Credits

Decision Markets
Robin Hanson

Business School Building, EN-606
Universidad Francisco Marroquín
Guatemala, October 24th 2007

New Media - UFM production. Guatemala, October 2007
Camera: Sergio Miranda; digital editing: Rebeca Zuñiga; index and synopsis: Richard Gándara; content reviser: Daphne Ortiz; publication: Mario Pivaral / Carlos Petz


Robin Hanson is an associate professor at George Mason University and Research Associate in Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford…

IDEAS DE LA LIBERTAD

Nuestra misión es la enseñanza y difusión de los principios éticos, jurídicos y económicos de una sociedad de personas libres y responsables.

Universidad Francisco Marroquín