Transcript
  • 00:00    |    
    Initial credits
  • 00:20    |    
    Introduction by Hugo Maul
  • 01:13    |    
    Opening remarks
  • 01:53    |    
    Two hot issues
    • Free capital mobility
      • Causes
      • Push and pull factors
      • Sequence and pace of financial liberalization
    • Persistent current account deficit
    • U.S. current account deficit
  • 08:30    |    
    Motivation for writing this paper
    • Differences between developed and developing countries
    • Richard Cooper: financing the U.S. deficit
    • William Poole: capital and financial account drive changes in current account
    • Objectives of this paper
    • Empirical study
  • 15:06    |    
    Is persistent current account deficit a problem?
    • Yes
    • No
    • Limitations of a temporal approach
    • Effects of the Asian crisis
  • 20:28    |    
    Current account determinants
    • Depth and sophistication of the financial system
    • Adjustments to current account imbalances
    • Capital inflow overshooting and volatility
      • Trade in widgets and in dollars
      • Absorptive capacity
  • 24:26    |    
    BOP accounting
    • Components
    • How financial account (FA) affects current account (CA)
      • Release liquidity constraint
      • Exchange rate appreciation
      • FDI complements
      • Short-run and long-run policies
      • Effects of sterilization policy
      • Is sterilization the current monetary policy in Guatemala?
    • How CA affects FA
  • 32:27    |    
    Causal relationship between CA and FA
    • Wong and Carranza studies in four developing countries
      • Situation before 1989
      • Situation after 1989
    • Empirical methodology
      • Modified Wald test
      • Augmented VAR between CA and FA
      • Augmented VAR between CA and DI, PI and OI
      • Caveats of Granger causality
      • Omitted variables
    • Empirical data
    • Empirical results
      • Without controlled variables
      • With controlled variables
      • Structural break
  • 42:52    |    
    Conclusions
    • Capital mobility in developed countries
    • Capital mobility in emerging economies
    • Absence of a sound financial system and capital mobility
    • Pace and sequence of liberalization
  • 45:11    |    
    Extensions of the current study
    • Global savings glut
    • Financial deepening variable in the regression
    • Financial deepening variable in the regression
  • 47:26    |    
    Questions and comments
    • Are your results sensitive to long-run effects? Why did you use qualitative data?
    • How do developed and developing countries adjust current account deficit? What is the situation of the FA and CA in Argentina?
    • Effects of a CA deficit in a national economy
    • Is current account deficit a result of a weak financial system and a weak economy?
    • Ability to finance a CA deficit and the origins of a crisis
    • Does FA define CA? Could CA define FA? How can this process occur?
    • Transition to an inverse process in emergent countries
    • Difficulties achieving this transition
    • Does it make sense to disaggregate the components of the CA?
    • Is there a difference between capital inflows used in consumption and those that finance capital?
    • Management of FDIs in the long-run
    • Unavailable physical capital and the CA
    • Imports of consumption goods and the banking system
    • Sudden stops
  • 01:19:20    |    
    Final words
  • 01:19:27    |    
    Final credits


Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?

22 de marzo de 2006   | Vistas: 2695
New Media

Antonio H. D. Yan looks at the debate surrounding current account imbalance and presents the results of his recent study, which was published in 2007. He discusses two key current issues, the demobilization of capital mobility and persistent current account deficit, which were seen in Mexico from 1994-1995 and during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. In this presentation he examines causality and explores the differences between developed and developing countries. Yan explains how current account imbalances adjust and form part of the business cycle in developed countries. According to Yan, developing countries are more vulnerable to free capital mobility, where it is demand-induced, and in emerging economies the financial account causes current account deficit.



Conferencista

Antonio H. D. Yan is an expert in the fields of monetary theory and policy, international finance, and economic development.…


IDEAS DE LA LIBERTAD

Nuestra misión es la enseñanza y difusión de los principios éticos, jurídicos y económicos de una sociedad de personas libres y responsables.

Universidad Francisco Marroquín