Transcript
  • 00:01    |    
    Initial credits
  • 00:20    |    
    Introduction
  • 00:25    |    
    Macroeconomic contractions
    • Personal consumer expenditure per capita (C) and gross domestic product (GDP)
    • The Great Depression (1929-1933)
    • Disaster shocks in the model
  • 04:8.5    |    
    Declines in C and GDP
    • Average contraction size
    • Wars
    • United States contraction in 1921
    • Victims of influenza epidemic
    • France during World War II
    • Taiwan
    • What role does culture play?
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • Culturally influenced parameters
    • How do you define "rare"?
  • 16:12.5    |    
    Significant historical events
    • World War II
    • Great Depression
    • Great influenza epidemic
    • Natural disasters
    • OECD
      • Finland
      • Sweden
      • Iceland
      • The 2008 financial crisis
    • Exogenous events
    • Alan Greenspan
    • Are market bubbles predictable?
    • Duration of events
    • Does consumption include durable assets like automobiles and housing?
  • 28:1.400000000000091    |    
    C and GDP disasters compared
    • Frequency distribution of the crises
      • Size
      • Duration
      • Form of the frequency distribution
        • Power-law density
        • Probability density function
    • Is there information about potential contractions?
    • How different is that information from your research results?
    • Exchange rates
    • Average disaster probability
    • What will be the effect of today's intrusion on the financial markets?
    • Exiting the disaster state
  • 43:37.30000000000018    |    
    Lucas-tree model of rates of return
    • Expected growth rate
    • Average real return
    • Consumption data
      • Gamma values
      • Risk aversion
      • OECD versus non-OECD countries
      • Different thresholds
      • War observations
      • Non-war observations
    • Is there a higher premium for OECD than for non-OECD countries?
    • Wars and revolutions
  • 56:38.5    |    
    Ongoing lines of research
    • Linkage between stock-market crashes and depressions
    • Great influenza epidemic
    • Types of consumption
    • Postdisaster recovery
      • A new market model
      • Mehra-Prescott model
      • What would be the effect of including the data of developing countries where crises are more prevalent?
  • 01:05:50.5    |    
    Stock-market crashes
    • Information
    • Data and methodology
    • United States stock-market crashes
      • 1987
      • 1929-31
      • Depressions
      • 1917-21 and 1929-33
      • 2000-01
      • 1973-74
      • 1937
      • 1907
      • 2008
    • Long and short-term equity premium
    • Short-term return in Venezuela
    • Could we say that there is a 2-7 probability of depression?
    • Depressions and stock-market crashes
    • Isn't the stock market a consequence of the depression?
    • Matched cases
      • Germany price controls in World War II
      • Portuguese stock market
      • French stock market
    • Depressions not associated with stock-market crashes
    • Stock-market crashes not associated with depressions
  • 01:23:52.30000000000018    |    
    Conditional probability of a depression, by size
  • Non-war environments
  • 01:28:57.30000000000018    |    
    Conditional probability of a crash, by size
  • 01:29:53.30000000000018    |    
    Calibration results
  • 01:31:21.5    |    
    Final credits


Macroeconomic Crises and Disasters

New Media  | 16 de julio de 2009  | Vistas: 9

About this video

In the second session of this four-part series, Robert J. Barro continues his discussion on his current research into the effects of macroeconomic crises and disasters in different countries throughout history. Barro’s ongoing research demonstrates how different economic indicators fluctuate through time during significant historical events. According to Barro, wars, epidemics, and other rare disasters affect both a country's GDP and its per capita personal consumer expenditure. He also analyzes the interplay between depressions and stock-market crashes and explains how it is now possible to foresee how an economy will behave during future disasters and how indicators around the world will be affected. Finally, Barro explains how some variables, like consumer preferences and culture, may affect the outcome of a crisis.


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